Understanding the politics of the Indian Ocean
As the global power dynamics are witnessing a seismic shift, the Indian Ocean is considered as a center of gravity for the global power competition. It has become almost the talk of the town that the 21st century belongs to Asia, as this region is home to the thriving economies of the world. From Alfred Mahan to Robert D Kaplan, it has been continually predicted that the future of the global struggle for power will continue in the Indian Ocean.
Indian Ocean is the third largest ocean, and its unique features make it a strategic hotspot in the international arena. It is semi-closed, home to the world’s most critical choke points, like; straits of Hormuz, Malacca, Bab al-Mandab, and the world’s most strategic Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC). History shows that the straits in the Indian Ocean have timeless importance. The 16th century Portuguese diplomat and writer, Tome Pires, has called Malacca as the “gullet of the world”. Upon conquering the sultanate of Malacca, the Portuguese general, Afonso de Albuquerque writes, “Men cannot estimate the worth of Malacca, on account of its greatness and profit”. The rise of China and India, and their hunger for energy have forced them to shift their attention to the seas. The growing role of these two Asian giants, as the emerging maritime powers and the existing hegemon, the USA, has given birth to a strategic triangle in the Indian Ocean.
Each actor of this emerging strategic triangle has a different approach according to their respective benefits and insecurities. Historically the Indian Ocean’s politics has been identified by the role played by the extra-regional powers, but in the 21st century, it will be a mistake and a narrow approach to look into the developments through the Lens of extra-regional powers. In the ongoing century, one has to take as the resident power of this region. Further it will not be wrong to say that India will play a pivotal role in shaping the political atmosphere of the Indian Ocean.
Men cannot estimate the worth of Malacca, on account of its greatness and profit
Since its inception, India has shown a tendency to control the Indian Ocean, as its founding father Jawaharlal Nehru has said in 1958, we can’t afford that some power other than India should control the Indian Ocean. Indian strategist K M Panikkar also highlights that India’s future prospects will be decided on the maritime front as India is surrounded by the seas on three sides. More recently, India has converted from “Look East policy”, to “Act East policy’. India’s growing military might and, its close tie with the important islands states like, Mauritius, Seychelles and Madagascar, and India’s control over Andaman and Nicobar islands, make it a potent maritime power in the region, which has created insecurities for other regional and extra-regional powers like China and the United states.
China views the influential role of Indian in the Indian Ocean with great concerns as most of its energy comes through this region. It seems that India is the real strategic rival of China than the US, in the Indian Ocean. According to Hu Bo, of the Institute of Ocean Research, Peking University China, if India achieves the command of the Indian Ocean, it will continue to expand towards East in the Pacific and the south China sea’ to the west by means of the Red sea and it can go towards south and ultimately to the Atlantic. If this capability is achieved in future it will enable India to project power in any region that will undermine Chinese interests.
The United States is still a preponderant global maritime power. American interests in the region can be summed up as the protection and smooth flow of its trade. The US fight against terrorism and radicalism and most important, not to allow any other power to take control of the indo-Pacific region. America’s National Security Strategy aka NSS, 2022, postulates China as the biggest threat for its interests in the Indo-pacific region. The NSS 2022, promulgate USA’s abiding interest to defend Taiwan against any Chinese aggression. According to the US initiative, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea power” the United States has aimed to show a credible combat power in the Indian Ocean. The Congressional Research Service June 2023, highlights the importance of the Indo-Pacic region for America, as the US is engaged in 66 strategically important defense projects.
The initial survey shows an uncertain maritime geometry of the Indian Ocean. This uncertain environment can provide ample space for cooperation as well as the source of conflict. According to Robert Jervis perceptions and misperception are the constant precursors of shaping the international politics. By keeping in view, India’s nonaligned stance, it will not be probable to assume that she will go totally in the US armpit to contain Chinese advancement in the Indian Ocean. On the other hand if India becomes a potent naval force, it will make Indian Ocean as its own preserve. In such scenario it can instigate wariness for China and the USA.
This uncertain regional geometry may lead to competition rather than cooperation as according to Hu Bo, no single power is in a position to have a clear advantage over others in the Indian Ocean region.
Nasir Imtiaz is the content strategist of The Spine Times.
2 Comments